Hurricane or Tropical Storm Forming?

The latest satellite loops over the Southeastern U.S. coast at 2:30pm Tuesday suggest that a tropical system may be developing now. A well defined low level circulation has developed and is located over the Gulf Stream...a favored area for storm formation and intensification. The computer models are having a difficult time with this system and basically are not sure what to do with it. However, it seems to me that there's a high likelihood of Tropical Depression and probable Tropical Storm Formation over the next 24 hours. The ETA model brings the storm NW'ward toward Wilmington, NC but then stalls its progress as a ridge of high pressure to the north blocks it. The storm then drifts slowly South and West and may actually move onshore somewhere between Jacksonville, FL and Savannah, GA over the next 72-84 hours. While the system may stay over water for awhile, the ETA model suggests that the storm really won't become that intense. This could be a result of upwelling of cold water since the storm will be sitting and churning up the colder water at the bottom of the ocean while not moving. Also, as you get close to the NC/SC and GA coastines, the water temperatures actually get a little bit colder than they would be further out to sea over the gulf stream.

Overall, there is possible tropical development I'm watching over the Southern Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours and also a stronger system that may be moving Westward in the Carribbean Sea in about 4-5 days.

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UPDATE: The GFDL model, one of the most reliable computer models in Hurricane Forecasting, is VERY similar to to the ETA/WRF. It too follows a similar track with eventual landfall or dissipation around Savannah, GA in a few days. The GFDL does not strengthen the system past a weak T.S.

Stay Tuned!!!