WINTER STORM UPDATE: 12/16-12/17

The latest computer models continue to delay the secondary low pressure development along the Mid-Atlantic coast. This means that as the main low continues further inland over the Ohio Valley, a southerly wind will pump up warmer air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere. While snow will fall heavily and accumulate significantly during the first part of the storm, I now believe that a changeover to sleet and even rain will occur into the Albany area. This will cut down on snow accumulation quite a bit. Nevertheless, snowfall will be heavy begining around 11pm-1am Sunday morning before the changeover during the day Sunday. Total snow accumulation will be 5-9" followed by sleet and rain. The storm should gradually wind down as some additional snow comes to an end by about 3am Monday morning.

Many areas in the Adirondacks southwestward to Syracuse, NY will see upwards of a foot of snow with many higher elevations close to 24" before all is said and done.

COMMENTS WELCOME!!

Blizzard Conditions Possible This Weekend

The Capital District is expecting a wide variety of snow accumulation with this weekend's storm. The snow if expected to begin a few hours before sunrise on Sunday and it should snow heavily for a good part of the day.

Sleet is expcected to mix in to some extend and keep the snow accumulations down but we should still see 5-9" of snow before the changeover. The bullseye for this storm should be the deformation zone that's expected to develop to the NW of Albany. In these areas where all snow occurs, 18-24" is expected with higher amounts in the 'Dacks and the 'Skills (Adriondacks and Catskills). If the storm stays a little further east, then we could stay with all snow. If that happens, then it seems that we could easily exceed a foot of snow. Stay tuned.

Why Amtrak Sucks?

So, I travel to the Amtrak station in Rennselaer, NY to catch my 1:30pm train to Rochester for a trial tomorrow morning. The taxi gets me to the train station on time despite the heavy snow and 4" of accumulation we had on the ground alreeady. I arrived 1/2 hour before my train departed to learn that the Locomotive broke down in Penn Station, NY and hadn't left. HAVE YOU SEEN HOW MANY EXTRA AMTRAK LOCOMOTIVES THEY HAVE SITTING AROUND? Instead, it took them 2 1/2 hours to get a new locomotive to bring the train to Albany. Finally at around 4pm the train arrives. I board the train and we start hauling west toward rochester. Not so fast. 7 Miles away at Schenectady, the train is stopped and we learn that there's another train coming east-bound and that there is only 1 track in that area. Being the nice train controllers that they are, they let the other train come 1st...it should onlyt be 10 minutes.

About 1/2 hour later we find out that there is a switch problem in Amsterdam and the east-bound train was stopped. After about 1 hour of sitting in Schenectady, NY, we finally get moving. As of this writing, I am just west of Syracuse and if we stay on schedule and all goes well, I should be arriving by around 9:30pm.

All Aboard Amtrash!!
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WEEKEND NOR'EASTER UPDATE:

Models have come into excellent agreement that the Northeastern U.S. will get a huge kick-ass storm Sunday into Monday morning. This storm is going to be in the perfect location for some incredible snow totals in some areas. There will be some sleet mixing in in some spots and that can become very tricky as far as snow accumulations go. But as of this writing (7:30pm Thursday), I think a 12-18" snowfall is certainly not out of the question. Northern NJ and the NYC area could see 6-10" from this storm. Parts of the Adirondacks and Catskills should see 18-24" or more if all plays out. The snow should begin early Sunday morning.

UPDATE: 11pm Wednesday Night

I have adjusted my Snowfall Totals upwards to 4-6" for Albany.

Say It Aint Snow...

Update:

Moderate snowstorm will affect the Albany area tomorrow during the day and evening. Fluffy snow will be the rule and I expect 3-4" by late Wednesday evening.

More Interesingly, the models continue to show a larger and more powerful snowstorm for Saturday and Sunday. The trend has been more favorable for heavy snow here in the Capital District as cold air will be plentiful. Based on what I am seeing now, the mid level low center will be directly over Long Island. This usually gives us the blockbuster snowstorms. By Sunday afternoon and evening the snow should be winding down. Early indications are that we can expect 8-12" of snow here in Albany and as much as 12-18" in the 'Dacks and Catskills. The NYC area will also be seeing snow upwards of 6-12" as well. (LOL. One computer model indicates that we could be seeing 26" of snow with this storm...but that seems very unrealistic at this time. But I will watch future model runs to see how things shape up).

Welcome to winter.

Borderline Storm Pattern

As of 8am on Tuesday, the NAM and GFS model runs continue to advertise the development of a moderate storm system that is forecast to move across Central PA and into Northern NJ. Temperatures to the south of this system are more favorable for a wintry mix of precipitation and rain, but to the north, it should be all snow. With the GFS looking stronger and further south than the NAM, some areas in the northeast should see some snow this coming Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. At this point, snowfall totals should be in the 4-8" range along Northern and Central NJ, Southeastern NY, NYC and Long Island while lesser amounts (Dusting to 2") can be expected northward up to Albany. Hunter Mountain is poised to do well with this storm and ski enthusiasts should be happy with the results. The storm will be a fast moving storm and the exact motion of this storm will be crucial to the ptype and also the amount of snow that falls. Arctic air will be ushered in as the storm departs on Friday.

Long Range: Most interestingly of all...the Models are advertising a bombing low pressure system with potential Blizzard conditions across Upstate NY around 12/16/07. Might we see 6-12" of snow in parts of the Northeast? If everything pans out the way it looks this morning the answer is yes. Since things can change this many days out, Stay tuned!!