Another Hurricane Brewing near Florida....

It is interesting to see that ALL of the computer weather models develop this tropical wave into a T.S. or hurricane over the next 48 hours. While most models keep the system moving slowly along the FL east coast, it is SCARY to see that the 06z GFDL model brings a compact but potent hurricane almost directly over NEW ORLEANS!!! This model run would bring the RF Quadrant (with the strongest winds and surge) right over the city. The good news is that the GFDL is the outlying model here and it most likely won't happen this way. It will also be interesting to see how strong this storm gets since it is over the Gulf Stream...but over waters that have been upwelled by Katrina a week or so ago. My forecast is that this storm develops into a high end T.S. or a low end Hurricane and meanders North or Northwestward along the FL coast...perhaps moving inland at some point between Ft. Lauderdale and Daytona, FL. I don't think this will become a severe hurricane but more of a nuisance flood producer perhaps with some winds that could cause some minor damage to trees, etc. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html