Hurricane Rita: 3rd Most Powerful Hurricane on Record

Hurricane Rita is now as strong as Katrina was and maybe stronger. Watch out Houston (see why below).

11PM Advisory: Rita: 175 MPH Winds Sustained!!!

GET THIS!!!! The 00z model consensus and extensions have all shifted markedly eastward. The GFS now tracks east of Houston by about 15 miles while the GFDL extensions bring the storm right over the City of Houston. The other models have also all shifted to the right quite a bit and are just to the left of Houston by maybe 15-20 miles. This is where the consensus track is also. Of interest also is the new GFS forecast of 175 kt (200 mph) maximum sustained winds in about 48 hours. The GFS and the GFDL (and extensions) both continue the strengthening for another 36 hours from now!!! IMO: The GFS has done the best job so far. The 18z GFS run nailed the more NW'erly jog this afternoon. If NHC doesn't reference the NW jog or model change in its 11pm advisory, I would be very surprised.

8pm EDT Wed.:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITAIS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATESTMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 898 MB...26.55 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THETHIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTICBASIN.

7:30pm EDT Wed:
The 18z GFS computer model run may be on to something!?!?!!! The Northwest Jog that lasted for 4 hours or so, was likely significant enough to change the track. Based on the following, the NHC MUST BE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS. A review of the 18z GFS (one of the most reliable models for the tropics IMO) shows a major shift in Rita's track. It brings Rita onshore with a DIRECT HIT on Houston, TX at 2pm Saturday. I believe it will be a strong Category 4 hurricane. Given the NW jog, I am putting a LOT more weight on the GFS and a landfall in and around Houston. FYI: It is common practice for forecasters to wait a little while to see if another model run continues the trend before making adjustments...especially in such a high profile situation. That said, I'll bet this is what the NHC is doing and might even anticipate a track shift to the north tonight or at 5am tomorrow if the trend continues!!!

HOUSTON, WE'VE GOT A PROBLEM!!!!

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