Severe Weather Thursday?

For all you weather weenies out there.....00z Model data reminds me of other events where we have backed into a severe TRW squall line despite minimal instability. A very strong surface front will create plenty of lift on Thursday. 500mb vorticity will also be favorable and winds will be extremely favorable for severe wind gusts. MM5 and ETA suggests a line of heavy showers and isolated storms to race across upstate New York by midday and these may be enough to produce wind gusts of 50-70mph at the surface. I expect there will be SVR Warnings issued tomorrow across this area (and an outside chance of a watch). It's one of those situations where Severe Thunderstorm Warnings may be issued for plain showers with no lightning. That's just the best way to warn for 1 or 2 counties with damaging winds. And, with 850 winds of 50-70 knots, it won't take much to bring damaging gusts to the ground. In addition, there a very nice wedge of dry air at 700mb and this will enhance the severe potential. So, we shall see what happens, but I do expect a fairly active day tomorrow. And its not out of the question that a full-blown squall line (with bowing segments) organizes either. Here's to a good chase??!!